The Draft’s Biggest Boom-or-Bust Candidates

8 October 2025

When it comes to drafting players, it's a gamble. Sometimes you hit the jackpot, and other times, well… you end up with a bust. That's just the nature of the beast. But what makes certain players more of a risk than others? Why are some athletes seen as "boom-or-bust" candidates? In simple terms, these are the players with the highest potential who could either turn into stars or fall flat on their faces in the pros.

In every draft class, there’s a handful of guys who make teams feel like they’re walking a tightrope without a net. If everything breaks right, they could be a franchise's savior. But if it goes wrong, they could be a major disappointment. Let’s dive into some of the biggest boom-or-bust candidates in recent draft history and examine what makes them ticking time bombs or potential game-changers.

What Makes a Player a Boom-or-Bust Candidate?

Before we get into the meat of things, let's talk about what exactly defines a boom-or-bust player. These are athletes with undeniable talent but come with a few question marks. Maybe they had some inconsistencies in college, an injury history, or off-the-field red flags. They might be physical freaks with all the tools to succeed but lack the polish or mental game to put it all together.

The boom-or-bust label often applies to players in the early rounds, particularly the first round, where expectations are sky-high. Teams picking in these spots are looking for game-changers, players who can alter the trajectory of their franchise. But with great potential comes great risk. Let’s look at some recent prospects who fit this mold.

1. Zach Wilson - QB, New York Jets (2021 NFL Draft)

Zach Wilson was the epitome of a boom-or-bust pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Coming out of BYU, Wilson had everything you want in a quarterback. He had a rocket arm, mobility in and outside the pocket, and a flair for making off-script throws that had scouts drooling. His pro day was a highlight reel in itself, with throws that made everyone think they were watching the next Patrick Mahomes.

But here’s where the "bust" part comes in. Wilson played against a relatively weak schedule in college, which left many wondering if he could handle the speed and complexity of NFL defenses. His decision-making, at times, left a lot to be desired, and his lean frame raised concerns about his durability.

The Jets took the plunge, picking him second overall, but so far, Wilson has struggled to live up to the hype. His rookie year was a rollercoaster, with flashes of brilliance followed by head-scratching mistakes. The jury's still out, but he’s certainly walking the tightrope between boom and bust.

Lesson Learned: Flashy arm talent and athleticism can make a player look like a franchise savior, but decision-making and consistency are just as important.

2. Isaiah Simmons - LB/S, Arizona Cardinals (2020 NFL Draft)

Isaiah Simmons was a defensive Swiss Army knife at Clemson. He played linebacker, safety, and even cornerback at times, showcasing elite athleticism and versatility that had scouts comparing him to the likes of Derwin James and Troy Polamalu. He ran a blazing 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and his size-to-speed ratio was off the charts.

But here’s the catch: Simmons didn't have a defined position. While his versatility was praised in college, NFL teams need players to fit specific roles. The big question was, "Where do you play him?" Would he be a linebacker? A safety? Could he handle NFL offenses that are far more complex than what he saw in college?

So far, Simmons has had a mixed bag of success. He’s flashed moments of brilliance but has also struggled to establish himself in a consistent role. Arizona has moved him all over the field, which is both a blessing and a curse. He hasn't yet fully lived up to his draft billing, but the potential is still there.

Lesson Learned: Versatility is a double-edged sword. While it makes a player more valuable, it’s crucial to have a clear plan for how to use them.

3. Trey Lance - QB, San Francisco 49ers (2021 NFL Draft)

Trey Lance is another quarterback who entered the league with enormous potential but also a ton of question marks. Coming out of North Dakota State, Lance had only one full season as a starter before declaring for the draft. His college tape was impressive, no doubt about it. He had a big arm, could make all the throws, and was a threat with his legs.

However, the lack of experience was a huge red flag. He played in just one game during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, leaving teams with a very limited sample size to evaluate. On top of that, he played in the FCS, which isn’t exactly the SEC or Big 10. The level of competition he faced was a concern.

The 49ers made a huge investment to move up and grab Lance with the third overall pick, and so far, his career has been a mixed bag. Injuries have hampered his development, and he’s yet to fully establish himself as the franchise QB San Francisco hoped for. But the potential is still there, and he could easily swing toward "boom" if everything clicks.

Lesson Learned: Quarterbacks with limited experience are the ultimate dice roll. The physical tools might be there, but without reps, it’s hard to predict how they’ll adjust to the pros.

4. Henry Ruggs III - WR, Las Vegas Raiders (2020 NFL Draft)

Speed kills. And if you’re Henry Ruggs III, you’ve got it in spades. Ruggs was the first wide receiver taken in the 2020 NFL Draft, selected 12th overall by the Raiders. His blazing 4.27-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine turned heads, and many believed he could be the next Tyreek Hill—a game-breaking receiver who could blow the top off defenses.

But speed isn't everything. Ruggs struggled to adapt to the complexities of NFL route running and didn't immediately develop a strong rapport with quarterback Derek Carr. His production in his rookie season was underwhelming, with only 26 catches for 452 yards.

Unfortunately, Ruggs' NFL career took a tragic turn when he was involved in a fatal car accident in 2021. His off-the-field decisions ended his time in the league, a stark reminder of how quickly things can change for a boom-or-bust candidate.

Lesson Learned: Speed can make a player enticing, but it takes more than raw athleticism to succeed at the next level.

5. Jadeveon Clowney - DE, Houston Texans (2014 NFL Draft)

Jadeveon Clowney was supposed to be the next great defensive end. After his famous hit in the 2013 Outback Bowl, his draft stock skyrocketed. Clowney was a physical specimen—standing 6-foot-6, weighing 270 pounds, and running a 4.53-second 40-yard dash. He had all the tools to become a dominant force in the NFL.

But for all his physical gifts, Clowney’s production at the next level has been inconsistent. Injuries have played a significant role, as he’s never been able to stay healthy for a full season. He’s had moments of brilliance, like when he made the Pro Bowl in 2016, 2017, and 2018, but he’s never lived up to the generational talent label that followed him into the league.

Lesson Learned: Even the most physically gifted players need to stay healthy and work on their technique. Raw athleticism can only take you so far.

Why Teams Still Roll the Dice on Boom-or-Bust Players

So, why do teams keep taking chances on these kinds of players? It’s simple: the potential reward is just too tantalizing to pass up. In the NFL, talent is king, and every team is searching for that next superstar to build their franchise around. Boom-or-bust players offer the possibility of landing a generational talent, and for many teams, that’s worth the risk.

It’s like playing the lottery. You know the odds aren’t great, but the potential payoff is so life-changing that you’re willing to take the chance. And in the case of the NFL draft, sometimes all it takes is one player to turn a struggling team into a contender.

Conclusion: The Fine Line Between Boom and Bust

At the end of the day, picking a boom-or-bust player is a high-stakes game. Teams know the risks, but they also know the rewards could be franchise-altering. It’s a balancing act that’s as much about faith in the player’s potential as it is about the team’s ability to develop them.

These players are like fireworks. Some will explode into a beautiful display that lights up the sky, while others will fizzle out before they ever get off the ground. The trick is knowing which one you’re getting.

So, who will be the next boom-or-bust player to either take the league by storm or leave everyone wondering, "what if?" Only time will tell.